The Bill Hall Fan Club

It’s official: Bill Hall will get the majority of the playing time at third base. He left open the possibility of a change as the Brewers get further into the season, but for now, Hall will get the majority of at-bats during the regular season to try and prove that he’s an everyday player again instead of a one-year wonder.

Despite Hall hitting a paltry .225/.293/.396 last year at the hot corner, he still was an acceptable player, being above average due to good defensive numbers. Many of his peripheral numbers have stayed the same, with his lack of batting average being slightly BABIP-driven, meaning Hall should have a little bit of a bounceback year even if he hits at the level that he did last year.

But why has Hall struggled lately? Most of his peripherals are similar, but quite a few are not. Let’s compare some of Hall’s 2006 statistics (where he OPSed nearly .900) with last year’s (where he couldn’t even hit .700):

Hall 2006: 21.3 O-Swing%, 42.7 O-Contact%, 56.3 First Strike%
Bill Hall 2008: 26.8 O-Swing%, 56.0 O-Contact%, 62.3 First Strike%

To translate, these statistics mean that Bill Hall swung much more at pitches outside of the strike zone, he made much more contact on those pitches outside of the zone, and he gets thrown many, many more first-pitch strikes than before.

Well what do these stats imply? A higher O-Swing% means that he’s swinging at more pitches outside of the zone. This is a simple byproduct of not being able to see the ball adequately enough to make a good jodgement on the ball. That’s bad enough in itself, but the increase in O-Contact% may look better, but is actually worse: balls that are hit outside of the zone aren’t hit nearly as well as those inside. For example, pitchers love letting the Brewers “feast” on sliders outside of the zone; if Hall happens to swing at one and make contact, he’s not going to get the power or contact that he really wants out of his swing. A higher O-Contact% means he’s hitting weaker balls that aren’t flying out of the park or being driven into the gaps; instead, they are popups or weak grounders.

An analysis on how incredibly important first-pitch strikes are is on The Hardball Times here (pt. 1) and here (pt. 2). They say it more eloquently than I ever would.

So if these stats have gone down, why am I still optimistic about Billy starting at third this year?

The key stats where he’s shown some regression since his 2006 year could also be partially blamed on his apparent inability to see the ball well. If he’s swinging on more balls outside of the zone, that’s most likely the case. I’ve noted it here before, but I think it’s really important that Billy got LASIK eye surgery during the offseason. Considering the problems he seemed to have in between at-bats over the past couple of years where he’d blink really violently, as well as him saying that he’s seeing really, really well since he’s gotten the surgery make me think that he can improve his plate discipline to the point where it could bring his hitting ability back to 2006 levels and make him a huge contributor to the Brewers. His confidence seems high to boot — his current injury is healing really nicely and is only a small sidetrack to his spring training.

LASIK has done wonders for other players as well. Take a look simply at Denard Span of the Minnesota Twins — in 2007 in AAA, he managed a mere .267/.322/.353 line. Then he had LASIK surgery. In 2008, he hit .340/.434/.481 before coming up to the majors and continued to hit on a roll. He claims that the eye surgery allowed him to see the ball much better and it made him a better hitter.

Bill Hall says he can hit much better. I’m really excited to watch him hit this year; if he can exceed projections, the Crew just might have a monster lineup.