Note that these numbers are all CHONE projections, with one objection: I’m predicting Bill Hall will do much better than his projections, considering he’s due for a BABIP correction year and I have a good feeling his LASIK surgery will be able to make him see the ball better, and post a Denard Span-like transformation. I’ve shown why Hall’s problems are inherently linked with his ability to see the ball already right here. I’ve beefed up his numbers a little bit to adjust for what I think will happen…
5.2 runs per game is obviously unrealistic considering how odd the top lineups are. So, let’s adjust for the reduced performance that lineup will have. 5.05 runs per game sounds like an appropriate approximation.
Of course, there’s more. This isn’t the lineup that’s going to be playing every single day. Whenever J.J. Hardy needs a day off, he’ll be replaced by the soft-hitting Craig Counsell. Sometimes, Chris Duffy or Tony Gwynn Jr. (whichever one) is going to start in center. Brad Nelson might take some at-bats away from Ryan Braun. So, if we adjust playing time further, we amount to about 5 total runs per game with our lineup.
5 runs per game is nothing to scoff at. That’s 810 runs throughout the duration of the entire season. For reference, they scored 750 runs all of last season. Depending on how well the patchwork starting rotation holds up, we may very well have an underrated team here. 800 runs isn’t a small cup of coffee, and that could easily carry a team to a .500 record. If Braden Looper and
Of course, this is an inexact way to look at an inexact projection system, but it’s interesting to think about nonetheless. If the Brewers can score 40 more runs than last year, that just might do enough to keep them in the playoff hunt.
There are a couple more significant things that happened today: Ryan Braun left last night’s game when he lost a line drive in the lights and had it hit him in the thumb. The Brewers seem to be being precautionary about it, but it’s always concerning when the star player instantly heads to the X-ray room to look at a thumb. At least it’s not his side that’s been giving him problems, but nothing but bad can come out of a hurt thumb in baseball. Further bulletins as events warrant.
In addition, The Brewers cut Mike Lamb and added Casey McGehee to the team. Lamb was originally slated to be Bill Hall’s backup until McGehee decided to tear the cover off the ball this spring, hitting .370 with 6 home runs this spring.
McGehee seems like an average prospect at best, batting a lifetime .757 OPS in the minor leagues with average D at the hot corner. CHONE thinks he’ll hit .252/.312/.369, which is pretty awful for a defensively average third baseman. Marcel is the only other projection system that has him going anywhere above that, OPSing just under .730 for the season. This is not the production you want out of a third baseman, and he’s also 27, so he should improve just slightly as he enters his peak years as a big leaguer.
Meanwhile, Lamb is a much older player who is projected to bat much better. His fielding statistics are difficult to determine exactly, as he posted an UZR/150 of over 25 in 2005 with the Astros at third base, while doing almost the same on the negative end of the spectrum last year in Minnesota. It’s unsure exactly how much of that is caused either by a small sample size or even the rock-hard Metrodome astroturf, but it’s safe to assume his old age is catching up to his range somehow and he’s a defensive liability at first base. Neither player is really going to be worth many more wins than the other, especially considering the limited playing time they’ll get being Bill Hall’s backup.
So then, why would they decide to go with McGehee over Lamb? Lamb’s already spoken out about being demoted and says he’s none too pleased with the situation; ultimately he’d obviously prefer to find a role on a big league club somewhere and would rather be traded than sent to Nashville. Meanwhile, McGehee still had minor league options left and it would have been safe for the Brewers to keep him in the minors this year to start.
This sacrifices the depth the Brewers have at third base for this season. It takes an unnecessary risk (losing Lamb to waivers) when the risk could have been avoided by keeping both of them. Now, the third-base bench only goes 2-deep instead of having an extra option to call up in the minors in case someone gets hurt. Now, Lamb could take a job somewhere else, instead of McGehee staying put in the minors and waiting to be called up when an injury happens.
Of course, this might all be moot anyways, since Mat Gamel is only going to need another year or so of seasoning before we see him in a Brewers uniform.
Alright, the last three weeks have been a bit of a strenuous ordeal. Finally, I’m beginning to pick up some time here and there where I can start blogging again. When I thought I’d have a ton of time to blog — spring break — my computer ended up getting stolen and I had no internet access for a week. I’m still way behind, but that’s enough excuses for now.
Only eight days until Jeff Suppanstarts the first regular season game at the Giants against Tim Lincecum. Hmm. This regular season business is starting to sneak up on me, as I haven’t even purchased MLB.TV yet. I suppose that’s not necessarily a bad thing, since I won’t be missing much to look forward to when one of the best pitchers in the game takes on one of the worst.
All of the moves that new manager Ken Macha is making so far have been good ones. Starting Suppan on Opening Day may be counterintuitive, but I don’t mind the decision. Pitchers, forever harped on as slaves to the routine, won’t be messing up their pitching schedules at all just for the sake of realigning the pitching order , and it ultimately doesn’t matter who goes first anyways since every pitcher will be, in theory, starting around the same number of games throughout the season. I have a feeling Macha will be adjusting and tinkering with the rotation anyways during the season, and there’s no way it can be considered safe at all considering the Brewers’ luck with injuries so far during spring training.
Macha’s come into Milwaukee and subtly changed a couple of things with the team that will help the Brewers out in the long run. According to Tom Haudricourt, Mark DiFelice has won the final spot in the Brewers’ bullpen, edging out Jorge Julio and Wes Littleton. It’s especially intriguing to see that DiFelice will win the final spot in the bullpen, considering Julio is signed to a major league contract and probably wouldn’t go to the minor leagues and Littleton is out of minor league options and will most likely be placed on waivers. DiFelice is the only player who can still be sent outright to the minors, so he really had to outperform the other two players to win that final spot.
As I wrote about earlier, DiFeliece is an underratedly studly pitcher who strikes out a lot of people (65 strikeouts in 64 2/3 innings), walks none (8 walks in that same span), and has consistently had an FIP hovering around 3.0-3.25 throughout his minor league career. The only main question is whether or not his tendency to give up the fly ball could hurt him, but considering Miller Park is not a huge hitters park and that DiFelice doesn’t voluntarily put anyone on base, they shouldn’t hurt him as much as a normal pitcher. I project him at having a 3.5-3.75 FIP in the majors, since his junkball-type pitching style implies that pitchers can catch up to him.
His major-league career might not be as good as his minor-league track record would suggest. However, that doesn’t mean he’s a bad choice to make the club. A 3.75 FIP is still much better than the other alternatives (Julio has sported a 4.52 FIP in 450 major league innings, and Littleton has a 4.58 over 100 IP), and there’s nothing wrong with having a 3.5-4.0 ERA guy in the bullpen. For some teams, that would be closer-type material. I’d go so far as to say that DiFelice should be the 8th inning guy while Trevor Hoffman starts the season on the DL.
That means that Macha and the Brewers are in a “win-now” strategy and they think they can make the playoffs again this season. The one problem with this move is that it sacrifices depth in the organization, since there’s a very real possibility that both Julio and Littleton could be released or shipped to another team if DiFelice makes the club. Considering this season, I wouldn’t mind a “win-now” mentality since I have renewed faith that the Brewers will moderately exceed the expectations I’ve had for them this year. I still think Bill Hall is going to turn back into the form that earned him his hefty contract, and that means he’ll be exceeding projections.
Say, does anyone have a solution for porn-bot commenters? I get 20 e-mails per day alerting me of comments written by porn bots.
My house was broken into Tuesday night, and my laptop was stolen, among other things. This is the first time I’ve had access to a computer. I just ordered my new laptop, so blogging will resume once I get my new computer.
I know I said I’d be back this week. Unfortunately, I’ve been sick with a cold/the flu for the last couple of days, and assuming I recover completely in the next day or two, I’ll still be busy anyways with the Minnesota Gophers making the tourney, and I’m going to the first round games at the Metrodome on Friday, which will take all day and night.
Combine that with the midterms I have to do before Monday, and I’m going to make this a two-week vacation. No worries, though; I’m guaranteed to be back next week. Coming up, though, I have a preview of posts that I’ll be doing:
1) Finishing up my Part 3 preview of the Brewers
2) Alcides Escobar vs. JJ Hardy, and what’s the best option for the Crew.
3) More Brewers contracts stuff, stemming from this post.
4) Spring training updates and stats. Usually I don’t care about spring training stats, as they’re only a small sample size and just getting warmed up from 4-5 months off, but it’s fun to look at some players.
5) Big Tuesday Techno Fix
Due to the week before spring break being hectic and awful for me (midterms), I’m not going to post anything this week. Look for more stuff next week when I’m not so busy.
Recently, some friends and I purchased tickets to go see the Brewers take on the Dodgers in July. Now, we’re all college students, and I’m pining for cash just as much as the next kid with $10 grand in debt, so I can’t really afford to take time off of work on a Friday, buy tickets to two games, and spend the gas needed to drive from Minneapolis to Milwaukee too often. We got tickets the first day they came out.
The Brewers have made the jump in the last few years from small-market crybaby (Bud Selig) to a mid-market team. This is a direct result of the Brewers winning more ballgames and principal owner Mark Attanasio willing to spend the extra few dollars and make the extra effort to get the Brewers to the postseason. Attanasio and crew have changed the face of the organization by bringing in a fan-first attitude to the team, doing everything from offering nice ticket packages to minimizing fan costs. Let me explain.
Ticket prices went up last year by nearly 11 percent. That’s understandable, because despite Bud Selig’s shortcomings as the Commissioner, he’s still skyrocketed the popularity of baseball and people love it more than ever. A big market means big demand for tickets, and a hefty demand for tickets means that the club can afford to jack up ticket prices to afford those monstrous contracts. The objective of a baseball team is to make money, you know — I have no problem with higher ticket prices as long as it’s obvious that the ballclub’s intent isn’t out to gouge your wallets in the name of cash.
The Brewers have not done that. They have kept ticket prices wonderfully low compared to the rest of the MLB. Take a look at 2008’s Fan Cost Index (FCI) among MLB teams. FCI is a measure of the combined price of four average tickets, two small beers, four small sodas, four hot dogs, parking for one car, two game programs, and two adult-sized caps — in other words, the average cost for a family of four to attend a ballgame.
Milwaukee raised their ticket prices by nine percent in ‘08, but that’s below the league average and still a wonderful deal when compared to the rest of the teams in the major leagues. The Brewers have the third-lowest
Check out this really interesting article written by Chris Jaffe in 2007 that lists the different fees tacked onto the ticket prices. The Brewers have the cheapest fees attached to each ticket of any team in the majors, as it appears they are either inefficiently operating in this regard, or they want to keep costs down so more fans will come in. I tend to be swayed towards the latter; one would think a major-league organization should be well-familiarized with the art of gouging money and would know that fans, by now, are used to the “convenience fee” that tends to make ticket prices 20% more than what they claim to be.
So, the Brewers keep their ticket prices cheap. They keep their convenience fees almost nonexistent. What does that mean? Are they simply desperate to get butts in seats? Doesn’t seem like desperation here, just legitimate excitement. That makes me think that Attanasio and the Brewers are committed to keeping fans happy.
So, when I see things like this, I can’t help but still feel good when I’m dropping $125 for two baseball games. Rooting for this team is awesome.
Remember, as usual, all of these mixes are free to download and listen to.
IDM
FMControl released an online album that supposedly took two years to create. The album’s called “Objects 2007-2008,” and it’s really neat; very similar to Autechre during their glitchier days.
Posted below is a video from one of my favorite artists, Blamstrain. Blamstrain is actually Juho Hietala, a Finnish musician who happens to create some of my favorite stuff ever — if you ever see his album Ensi, absolutely pick it up and give it a listen, as it’s some of my favorite stuff ever. Anyways, he released a new track called Galaxy Sports in which he made available in Youtube (in HD! Internet HD video — that’s taking off right now) form so he could be a VJ that reaches out across the world. Oh, and the track is really good too:
Ambient
Mort Deuce released a new little mix, check it out.
Here is a link to a mix released by The Orb. A mix by The Orb? Where have I seen that before?
Techno
Omar S released a new mix. It’s a required download for any techno junkie — Omar S is one of the few guys who you know when you download something you will like. Download directly here.
Here is one of the most underrated mixes I’ve ever heard. This is Detroit techno at its best — slightly minimalist, but still bumpin’. This was done, by the way, by Marco Passarani, a really fantastic DJ in general.
Mark DiFelice is a 32-year-old career minor league pitcher who seemingly can’t find a home, having minor league stints with the Rockies, Orioles, Nationals, Cubs, and now Brewers. So far, he’s been a journeyman minor leaguer who just found his first big-league experience last year in a short 19-inning stint, only getting his opportunity when David Riske got injured.
In his 19 innings with Milwaukee last season, he only put up a 2.84 ERA and a 151 ERA+, which should give him another shot at a cup of coffee, but even the amateur baseball fan knows that 19 innings is a small sample size for any period of pitching time, so the rationale is that DiFelice is an AAA pitcher.
Problem is, he’s not your everyday AAA scrub. He’s a really good pitcher. Last year in AAA, he put up gaudy numbers, which he’s done throughout his minor league career. Last year, in Nashville, he went 5-1 with a 3.22 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, while striking out more than a batter an inning and walking only 1.2. He had a K:BB ratio of 8.13 in AAA last year!
DiFelice is a junkball pitcher, throwing an 87mph fastball as well as a slider (cutter), circle change, and curve. He threw his fastball less than 15 percent of the time in the majors last year. Some have thought hitters will eventually catch up to his lack of an “out” pitch and he wouldn’t be a good option at the major league level, but he’s proven himself at least capable of being a good big-league reliever and if he can at least keep up a really good K:BB ratio he should still be an expendable reliever at least for a year or two.
Let’s say his CHONE or Marcel projections hold to be true. CHONE projects DiFelice to have a 3.41 FIP, while Marcel projections think his walk rates are going to go way up and decrease his FIP to essentially league-average (4.5). I tend to think, at least at the beginning of his big-league career, he’ll be closer to the CHONE projections and be a good pitcher who nobody really knew about. Instead, the Brewers most likely are going to keep Eduardo Morlan who had an FIP of 3.4 in AA last year for Tampa Bay simply because he will have to be offered back to Tampa if he’s not kept on the roster. Morlan is good, and projects to be a future stud in the big leagues, but if the Brewers want to win now they’ll place DiFelice higher up on the food chain than Morlan.
That leaves the bullpen situation looking like this:
Trevor Hoffman
Seth McClung
Carlos Villanueva
R.J. Swindle/Mitch Stetter
Jorge Julio
David Riske
Mark DiFelice
I actually really like that pen. Especially if they keep Tim Dillard and Todd Coffey in AAA. Dillard just isn’t that good, and Coffey could stand to work on his pitches for a little while while being the backup for the pitcher who’s ultimately going to get hurt sometime during the season.
But DiFelice is ready for the bigs. I think he’ll be a great pitching candidate, even if he doesn’t rely on the fastball.
